By Gromer Jeffers Jr.
The fight for control of Texas politics starts in earnest Saturday as residents begin filing their candidacies for the March party primaries.
After a redistricting process that sought to protect incumbents and fortify Republican majorities, the 2022 midterm elections aren’t expected to shift the balance of power in the Texas Legislature or its delegation to Congress.
But while seeking to bolster their majorities in the state House, Republicans allowed for minimal gains by Democrats in specific areas, most notably North Texas. Often the staging ground for the battle to control the Texas House, the Dallas area will find new faces in several legislative districts, and Democrats in Tarrant and Collin counties could pick up one seat each in their delegations to the House.
Collin County is poised to elect their first Democrat to the statehouse in modern history, but that’s offset by a new district in the county that’s favorable to a Republican candidate.
The filing period ends Dec. 13.
Though there will be some changes in the makeup, local House races will be less dramatic than in the past, when Democrats seriously challenged Republicans for control of the Legislature.
“They’re taking care of each other but reducing the prospect of much change,” said SMU political scientist Cal Jillson. “There are fewer swing districts than they were after the last redistricting process.”
The March primaries are designed for Republicans and Democrats to slate candidates for the November general election. Both parties will have slim chances to win on the other party’s turf, and the lack of swing districts makes Texas one of the least competitive states in the country.
But there are chances for some disruption to the status quo.
Local Democrats will try to oust University Park’s Morgan Meyer in District 108 and Garland’s Angie Chen Button in District 112, the last two GOP House members from Dallas County. In the redistricting process, Republicans made the districts represented by Meyer and Button more Republican, but it wasn’t enough to assure that a strong Democratic Party candidate couldn’t pull of an upset.
“The places to watch in Dallas County are going to be in Districts 108 and 112,” said David de la Fuente, a senior policy analyst for the center-left group called Third Way. “Can Democrats field strong candidates for those seats?”
While Dallas County’s politics are status quo, there could be significant changes elsewhere.
Tarrant County tussles
Democrats will likely gain a seat in the Tarrant County delegation to the Texas House, but Republicans will maintain a strong majority. The Democratic pickup likely will be in District 92, where the district represented by Republican Jeff Cason was drawn to favor a Democrat. Cason is one of two House Republicans to vote against House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont.
At least two Democrats — former Euless council member Salman Bhojani and Tracy Scott — have announced challenges against Cason.
If Democrats do win District 92 in November, Republicans will still enjoy a 7–4 majority in the delegation. Analysts say Cason was sacrificed by Republicans to bolster their majorities in other sections of Tarrant County. In 2020, Democrats targeted five Tarrant County seats held by Republicans. They lost all of those races.
State Rep. Chris Turner, D-Grand Prairie and the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, points out that, in 2020, President Joe Biden won Tarrant County over former President Donald Trump. In 2018, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke beat Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz in Tarrant County.
Turner said the political split in Tarrant County should be five Republicans, five Democrats and one swing district.
“The Republicans have drawn maps that continue to artificially inflate their numbers,” Turner said. “They have done this by packing Democrats into four districts.”
Turner said the demographics in Tarrant County are rapidly changing, so it won’t be long before Democrats have the chance to flip some GOP districts.
Republicans disagree.
“I still don’t think 92 is going to go Democrat,” said Jeremy Bradford, a political consultant and former executive director of the Tarrant County Republican Party. “Tarrant County will still be the biggest Republican county in the country and the only urban Republican county in Texas.”
Bradford said the national climate is working against Democrats. Biden’s approval rating is sagging, and earlier this month Democrats lost the Virginia governor’s seat, perhaps a harbinger of a rough midterm season.
“The three biggest advocates for Republicans across the country are Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi,” he said. “They’re doing more to help Republicans get elected next year than just about anybody.”
Tarrant County will also see a new representative in the seat held by Republican Matt Krause, who is running in the March primary for attorney general. Republican contenders running to replace Krause include Laura Hill and Cary Moon.
To offset a potential loss in Tarrant County District 92, Republicans are expected to win the Denton County seat now held by Democrat Michelle Beckley, who could be a victim of redistricting.
New faces in Collin County
The Collin County delegation to the House will see at least two new faces. A Democrat has a chance to win the radically changed District 70 that’s now held by retiring Republican Scott Sanford. Moved more to the southern part of the county, the district saw Biden with a comfortable win over Trump.
Some Democrats have already announced their candidacies, including Lorenzo Sanchez and Mihaela Plesa. In 2020, Republican Jeff Leach narrowly defeated Sanchez for reelection.
But national winds could affect those races as well, so District 70 won’t automatically change from Republican to Democratic. Republican Hayden Padgett is running to hold District 70 for the GOP.
“If the cycle gets bad for Democrats, a Republican could hold that seat,” De la Fuente said.
Analysts say District 70 was changed to help bolster the GOP seats held by Republicans Leach and Matt Shaheen, both of Plano. Those districts had been trending to favor a Democratic candidate, though Leach and Shaheen had narrow wins in 2018 and 2020.
Republicans are also expected to win the newly drawn Collin County District 61, where McKinney council member and Dallas Police union leader Frederick Frazier is running in the GOP primary against Jim Herblin.
“Republicans will decimate Democrats in Collin County,” Shaheen said. “All Texans are witnessing a terrible border crisis, massive inflation, labor shortages, spikes in gas prices and on-going national security problems under Biden. More than ever, the citizens of Collin County understand Democrat policies don’t work.”
But Collin County Democratic Party executive director Debbie O’Reilly said Democrats would work hard to make gains against Republicans across the county.
“We are reaching out to every community in Collin County to fight for personal prosperity, public education and freedom from the radicalized right,” she said. “While we’re working for solutions for kitchen table issues, they are banning books and attacking cartoon characters.”
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